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Should You Pull: Nohrian Dusk Edition

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Should You Pull: Nohrian Dusk Edition

Introduction

Good evening and welcome to Gamepress’ second installment of “Should You Pull?”, a series that analyzes new banners to give summoners an idea of the contents of these banners, how new units and skills relate to gameplay and meta, percentage odds of getting each individual unit, and of course, an idea of whether or not you should use your hard-earned orbs on them.

With this series, we hope to accurately represent the pros and cons of each new banner, as well as offering our own opinions on how worthwhile the banner may be. Everyone has different priorities and different affinities for certain characters or installments of the Fire Emblem franchise however, so our word is not law- we simply aim to give our readers a complete picture of what each part of a new banner entails. With that in mind, let's get started!

The Odds

Percentile Red Solo Blue Colorless Blue
0% 5 5 5 5
5% 14 15 14 9
10% 27 27 23 14
15% 37 37 35 22
20% 50 48 46 27
25% 62 60 56 32
30% 74 72 68 38
35% 87 85 79 46
40% 101 99 93 53
45% 116 114 107 60
50% 132 130 121 69
55% 150 147 137 78
60% 169 165 153 88
65% 190 186 173 99
70% 217 212 194 111
75% 246 242 219 125
80% 281 278 250 143
85% 326 321 288 164
90% 392 382 344 195
95% 512 502 441 248
100% 1621 1520 1393 791

This is a table explaining the odds of pulling a specific unit on the Nohrian Dusk Banner- for Red, we're looking for Flora, for Blue, we're looking for Silas or Ophelia, for Colorless we're looking for Nina. Off-focus five stars ("pitybreakers") are included in these calculations, however, our numerical values are not for getting any five star unit, but rather these specific five star units.

The table above is the result of 10,000 summoning simulations and should be read as your percentage chance for pulling a specific unit when color sniping in X amount of orbs, where X is the number in the Red, Blue, or Solo Blue column.

Because this banner has four units, odds are slightly worse than they would be on a three unit banner. Additionally, the leftmost blue column has the odds of getting a specific blue unit (either Ophelia or Silas), while the rightmost blue column has the odds of getting either of the blue units.

Silas: Loyal Knight

The unfortunately obvious demotion, Silas finds himself adding to the bloat of the blue lance cavalry pool, where he adds to a low Speed/high Attack and Defense niche that Quan filled only a week ago. However, Silas trades even more Speed for higher Defense, making his stats ultimately thus far the best general spread to run a defensive, Enemy Phase oriented build among other blue lance cavalry.

Compared with the free Finn

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
+0 +1 -9 +4 +3

Compared with the free Clive

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
-5 +2 -1 +4 +2

Compared with the 5 star exclusive seasonal Spring Xander

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
+0 +10 -4 +1 -5

Compared with the 5 star Exclusive Quan

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
-4 -2 -5 +5 +5

Skillwise, Silas is above average with a good array of skills to choose from. He carries the ever-popular Reposition of course, but also Steady Stance 3, a skill formerly only found on the limited Black Knight and 5 star exclusive Shiro. In addition, Silas has Even Def Wave, a new skill which raises his Defense by 6 every even numbered turn. With both of these skills combined with his neutral Defense stat, Silas’ default kit will give him a Defense of 48- on even numbered enemy turns, that is.

While his B or S slot may be crying out for Quick Riposte, Silas finds himself standing as one of the better Enemy Phase lance cavalry- though unlike Quan, he lacks a legendary weapon to make up for his penalized cavalry BST. Ultimately, the predicament is the same: Silas being cavalry means that he gives up part of his Base Stat Total for an extra tile of movement, which he largely will not need due to his niche as an Enemy Phase unit. This contradictory playstyle means that, while he’s optimal for his role, he’s not going to be as effective as a unit compared to another movement type.

Should You Pull?

Here are some reasons to try your luck on blue orbs:

  • You like both Silas and Ophelia, as you could get either one
  • You want a very tanky lance cavalry unit
  • You don’t want to wait to randomly pull him after he demotes
  • You want to inherit Even Def Wave or Steady Stance to a unit

Here are a few reasons you may want to stay away from blue orbs:

  • Silas is almost guaranteed to demote from this banner, so you will likely randomly get him later
  • His movement type is at odds with his playstyle, making him less effective than another unit might be
  • He has nothing particularly unique about him other than his statline, with no prf weapon or meta-defining skills to inherit

Ophelia: Dramatic Heroine

With a fantastic Attack of 37, decent Speed of 33, and mixed bulk with low Res for a blue mage, Ophelia enters the blue mage pool with a Slaying Tome, which just so happens to synergize extremely well with the new Special Spiral skill.

Compared with the free Saias

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
+4 +4 +3 +2 -11

Compared with the 3 star Mae

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
+3 +1 +2 +4 -7

Compared with the 5 star exclusive Ishtar

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
+0 +3 -3 +3 -3

Compared with the 5 star Exclusive Linde

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
+3 +2 -2 +6 -4

Ophelia comes with the non-seasonal exclusive version of Chill Res and is the first summonable unit to carry this skill since Spring Catria. In addition, she has a new Rally skill in Rally Up Atk+, an Assist skill which grants Atk +6 to the target and any allies within 2 spaces for 1 turn.

Finally, Ophelia comes with the legendary Missiletainn, a prf Slaying tome which reduces her Special cooldown by 1, and then additionally reduces it at the beginning of the map for every magical ally on her team. This makes her a great unit for multi-map modes such as Tempest Trials. This also synergizes extremely well with Lewyn’s Special Spiral skill, which gives her the ability to fire off 3-charge Specials on her initiation every single turn (or 4 charge AoE Specials).

Ultimately, Ophelia’s Attack is the highest of the current blue mages, but she suffers a little when it comes to her comparative Speed to other 5 star exclusive blue mages. Her mixed bulk is somewhat unique as well, with lower Resistance than normal, traded for higher Defense- she must have inherited this from her father.

Should You Pull?

Here are some reasons to try your luck on blue orbs:

  • You have a spare Special Spiral and want to make a monster Player Phase unit
  • You want a slightly more physically bulky blue mage
  • You want to make a one-shot build with blue mages
  • You want to inherit a powerful, 400 SP cost Assist skill to increase your Arena score

Here are a few reasons you may want to stay away from blue orbs:

  • Good chance of getting pitybroken by Silas
  • Her Speed of 33 is not great and she can easily be doubled by the speedy metagame
  • Her low-mixed bulk makes it difficult for her to specialize in either weapon type- a 61 Attack retaliation will kill her no matter what weapon it comes from

Nina: Eye Spy

Zipping into the new archer slot is Nina, a unit currently tied for the highest neutral Speed among archers with 37. For this, she trades a very low Defense of 16, maintains a high Resistance of 31, and an average Attack of 32.

Compared with the free Fallen Takumi

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
-2 +1 +3 -9 +7

Compared with the 3 star Niles

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
-2 +7 +3 -1 -3

Compared with the 3 star Setsuna

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
-2 +4 +3 -6 +8

Compared with the 5 star exclusive seasonal Summer Gaius

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
+1 +2 +0 -3 +3

As far as her skills are concerned, Nina has a new inheritable bow, Shining Bow, which deals an additional 7 damage if her foe’s Defense 5 or more points higher than their Resistance. This is a bit of an odd weapon in practice, but it essentially means that Nina should be fighting physically bulky units- the only drawback to this is that her own pitifully low physical bulk of 51 will likely result in her death if she initiates on a high-Defense unit with Distant Counter.

Still, she also comes with the new Spd/Res Link skill, which raises her and her ally’s Speed and Resistance by 6 after a movement Assist skill is used between them. This is a good skill for her stat spread, as it allows Nina to essentially raise her two best stats. Additionally, she comes with Bow Valor, which- while useless in combat- is a nice tool to train other bow units with.

Ultimately, Nina is a bit odd of a unit- clearly from her stats, she’s meant to be fighting mages, but her bow gives her incentive to take matchups with physically tanky units, which generally would retaliate into her lower Defense (provided they have ranged counter abilities). It’s likely best for her to abandon the Shining Bow and instead pick up a different weapon, such as a Slaying or Firesweep Bow in order to best capitalize on her stat spread without intentionally pitting her against the units she’s weaker to.

Should you Pull?

You might want to pull colorless if:

  • You want to inherit Shining Bow to another unit
  • You want a good Firesweep Bow user
  • You want to upgrade your Niles with his cute daughter
  • You want to train other archers or use Spd/Res link with a Blade tome unit

Conversely, here are a few reasons to leave the colorless orbs alone:

  • You already have a fast archer
  • You already have a mage counter
  • There is a very slim chance Nina might demote
  • The only ‘new’ things she has to offer are Spd/Res Link, which will likely wind up to be one of the worse Link skills, and Shining Bow, a niche bow that is better suited on a more physically bulky archer.

Flora: Cold as Ice

With one of the most complicated prf weapons in the game thus far, as well as the first non-seasonal colored dagger Flora will be considered by many to be the prize unit of this banner. With a jaw-dropping Resistance of 38 and a decent Attack of 34, Flora essentially min-maxes her stats by dropping her Speed drastically to 23 and her Defense to 18.

Compared with the free Felicia

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
+4 +11 -14 +0 +3

Compared with the free Kaze

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
+4 +4 -13 +1 +4

Compared with the 3 star Kagero

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
+7 -1 -11 -4 +10

Compared with the 5 star exclusive seasonal Halloween Sakura

Hp Atk Spd Def Res
+5 +2 -11 +4 +4

Flora is one of the most unique units that we’ve had in a long time, as there are no other units who come within a +/- 10 stat point range of her stats. In addition, her Hoarfrost Knife adds a plethora of utility, decreasing her Special cooldown by 1, guaranteeing a follow-up attack if her foe can counter, inflicting the typical dagger Def/Res -7 after combat, and most notably, granting her +20 Defense if she initiates combat on any non-ranged unit.

This grants Flora the ability to do several things: initiate on dragons who tout adaptive damage with an immune 38/38 Def/Res spread, initiate on armors with Distant Counter and guarantee a follow-up attack, initiate on mages and wall them off with 38 Resistance and a guaranteed follow-up attack, and set up massive debuffs on her surrounding foes for her allies to take advantage of.

However, during Enemy Phase her best utility is in baiting mages, though she cannot make her guaranteed follow-up attack. Her extra Defense and follow-up attack only applies in Player Phase, making her exceptionally fragile to melee units such as archers or other dagger units during Enemy Phase.

Her other skills of note fit right in with her dagger- Atk/Res Solo, the first skill of its kind, grants her additional Attack and Resistance if she is not adjacent to an ally. Quick Riposte and Def Ploy are both older skills, but both synergize reasonably well with her kit, with Quick Riposte granting her the guaranteed follow-ups in Enemy Phase that her weapon lacks.

Should you Pull?

The following are the reasons you should consider pulling red orbs for Flora:

  • You want a very strong Player Phase dagger unit who happens to be the first non-seasonal colored dagger
  • You want a ranged dragon counter
  • You want to inherit Atk/Res Solo onto another unit
  • She will almost certainly remain 5 star exclusive, making her difficult to obtain later on

And here are a few reasons you might want to stay your hand from Flora:

  • Ranged units with WTA are almost always better suited to be mages due to their ability to attack the generally-weaker Resistance stat
  • You already have strong Player Phase dagger units (Legault, Kaze, NY Takumi)
  • You want to score high in Arena and therefore should not use ranged units
  • Flora will perform somewhat poorly against armored units, attacking their higher Defense stat and operating with Weapon Triangle disadvantage to Brave Hector and Hardin