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Which banner?

Im trying to get the last 2 myrrhs i need to+10 her, and fortunately there are two banners for that right now.
I'm about at 55 orbs, but still have get the orbs from the new paralogue and from gc.
Considering that, which banner is a better investment? Double green with dorcas seems solid, but with such few orbs I'm afraid i could get pitybroken more easily.
On the other hand, the eirika/ephraim/myrrh banner still had the free redeem, so that's about 5 more orbs to try, and one more day to get orbs.
So to the maths experts here, which one is a better gamble?

Asked by Rhin2 months 1 week ago
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Answers

by Seeker 2 months 1 week ago

If you're willing to be patient in case the last copy doesn't come in 70-ish orbs (and you can only expect one copy with average variance on either banner) then go on the TT banner. Dorcas will probably pitybreak you, so you get both of them in around 80 orbs and possibly an off-focus for a cherry on top. But if you go on BHB banner, you'll probably end up with only one copy and no Dorcas, and possibly an off-focus.

Now, if things don't go especially well, TT banner will probably give you one focus unit, whereas BHB would give you none.

See simulation 2 in https://fireemblem.gamepress.gg/know-odds-general-probability-analysis-fire-emblem-heroes

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