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What's the total chance of summoning a focus unit on the 8% banner?

I know this sounds dumb but I'm terrible at working with percents, could someone please tell me the total chance we have for a focus unit in the upcoming banner?

Asked by Gebby1 year 1 month ago

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420% chance

Cease this nonsense.

Well, there are 12 units to go for. And 8% chance to get one of each.If my math is right, which I doubt it is...I'd say we all have a 0.96 chance of pulling a focus hero.

I don't think that's the way the rates work, I think the 8% is just to pull from the focus unit pool, and then it's split from there.
What I want to know is the total chance of getting a focus unit from one full summon session.

Oh that? I don't know. I just gave you the chance of pulling one in general...hopefully I'm right. Doubt it

0.96/1 with how many orbs or tries? Because if is with 1 summon this will be heaven.

I guess...Now don't take my word for it. I suck at math

.96%

8%. From what most people seem to understand is all the units in a summoning session are preselected so there's an 8% chance of a focus unit being selected for a summoning session per stone. The different rates you see people talk about are the chances for a certain color to hold a 5 star, for example since there's few green units a green orb has a higher chance of holding a 5 star since there's fewer units, while red is stuffed with units so there's more 3 and 4 stars to block a 5 star unit from being in that red orb

Thank you!

8% each orb. 40% to summon 1 focus unit from a full ring.

So each orb color has 3 focus units in it, so each focus unit has a 2.33% of being summoned from their respective color. The overall total is still 8%, but each unit has just over a 2% chance from their color. Beyond that is beyond me.

Imo, if i remember Bernoulli trials correctly (and i prolly dont):

n=numer of trials=5
r=how many times does it need to success = 1
p=chance of success = 8/100
q= chance of failure = 92/100
Binomial coefficient: ( 5 1) = 5

the equasion is P(r)= 5* p^r * q^(n-r)
so:

P(1)=5 (8/100)^1 * (92/100) ^(5-1) = ~0.28 or 28%

So chance of getting 5* unit from one full round should be 28%. That is assuming chance on each individual pull is always 8%, and if they dont cheat on that, it should be, chance of unit does not matter. let say you have 99 unists in green pull and one special unit (remember we dont have pitybreakers now) its still 8% to roll special unit, and 92% to roll any of those 99 units, adn then if you get that 92% chance, you have 1/99 to get the unit you want (or 2/99 if you dont care its 4* or 3* and it has those possibilities).

PS, chance of getting 2 of them ins one full sessions is:

P(2)= 10 *(8/100)^2*(92/100)^3= ~ 0.0498 or 5%
(binomial coefficient is (5 2) = 10)

But as always, long ago and not true.

Other example, lets say you get 3 red stones and you are sniping only for them.

n=numer of trials=3
r=how many times does it need to success = 1
p=chance of success = 8/100
q= chance of failure = 92/100
Binomial coefficient: ( 3 1) = 3

P(1) = 3 * (8/100)^1 * (92/100)^2 = ~20%

Now, is there 3 red units? Celcia, Ayra and Ike? Do i remember correctly? Then chance fo getting one of them if you roll 5* is 33%. so its 33/100 x 20/100. Overall, chance of getting (out of 3 red orbs) lets say Ike is = 6.6%. Out of 5 red orbs its 9.2%.

Knowing that, since there is a 8% focus rate and no other five stars heroes, plus the number of 3stars and 4stars heroes in each color is about the same (for the total rate split), it means you've got close to 8% chances to get a focus hero on each pull.

Pull summon rates are not color based but most likely rarity based. By now we can find a lot of sources proving it (mainly on Reddit) and thanks to the "rule of high number" with whales massiv pulls.

Most of them showing why Color pulling is improbable and uninformative.
It means that the heroes are predetermined before the orb (colour) draw. Thus, the heroes define the orbs (colour) pulled and not the other way around.

In brief, the rates are split between heroes and not between colors.

Didnt i read that the "initial rate" is 8%? So it doesnt stay 8?

Yes the chance to pull a 5 star hero is 8% per orb.
It is 40% chance to pull 1 per 1 full pull. It is why on high probability rate, it is better to pull quantity over sniping.

Your math is so far off here.

Easiest way to solve this is to find the probability of summoning no 5 stars in one section and then subtract this from 100%, since the two must add up to 100. The chance of not pulling a 5 star from 1 orb is 92%. Since we want to find the chance ofbthis happening 5 times, you do 92^5, which is about 65.9%. 100-65.9=34.1, so you have a 34% chance of getting a 5 star from one full session. To find the chance of two sessions, you just need to multiply the 65.9 times 91.75^5 (92-.25 for pity bonus) and subtract this from 100. So with two full sessions, your chances increase to ase to 57.1%.