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What is the chance to pull equation for a 5 star on the current banner?

I thought I new but I may be mistaken. Could you tell me the right answer, link it, or tell me if this is correct. I will use the current 4 blue focus as an example. Note, this is the chance for getting a 5 star when SNIPING blue.
Each orb contains that ratio stats by the banner. Each orb has a 6% chance to be a 5 star, 3% chance to be a focus unit, and a 94% chance to be a 3-4 star unit. This calculation is done for each orb and then when the pity rate goes up it adjusts. the reason why it's easier to get a 5 star is that you know 3% of those orbs are going to have a blue focus unit.

This is when you get sniping involved. Let's say that 27% of the 3-4 star pool is blue. Since you are sniping, the chances of you getting a 5 star if you pull sensibly becomes much higher. The chance of getting a 5 star with only blue becomes
3%+5 stars in blue pool of 3% (let's say around .8%?)/(27%/94%)
that becomes .038/.287
So the chance of getting a 5 star focus in this scenario with my made up numbers would be 13.24% chance.

Asked by RoyAhoy2 months ago
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Answers

Here's the current number of summon-able heroes as of the Muspel banner to assist calculations.

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Im dumb it should be .038/.287+.038 which makes that 11.7% chance of getting a 5 star

is this right? The formula, not the numbers

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For the current VG banner(s):

Chance of pulling a Blue focus: 3% * 4/4 = 3%
Chance of pulling a Blue non-focus 5-Star: 3% * 24/(38+24+19+15) = 0.75%
Chance of pulling a Blue 4-Star: 58% * 29/(32+29+19+28) = 15.57%
Chance of pulling a Blue 3-Star: 36% * 25/(28+25+18+25) = 9.375%

Chance of pulling any 5-Star from a Blue orb: (3%+0.75%) / (3%+0.75
%+15.57%+9.375%) = ~13.07%

(At least, I'm pretty sure that's how it's calculated.)

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Your method was correct. You might be off by like tenths or hundredths of a percent because I think there have been additions to the pool since the Muspell banner, but 13% should be close enough. That's 1 in 7-8, so we're talking a focus unit every 35-40 orbs (not counting those spent on other colours when no blue stones appear).

For reference, on a legendary banner, getting a green focus is usually around 10-11%. So this banner is really insane. Of course, it has the same disadvantage as a legendary banner, which is that there are so many focus units it's a toss which one you get.

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