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take a chance or wait?

I'm in desperate need for distant counter fodder, and would not say no to Myrrh for my merge project, but i really dont need B!Ike.

Should i take the chance of 1/3 not getting what i want for the 8% rate or wait for the Mathew/Hector banner that drops a bit later.

I'm at 150 f2p orbs now and would rather not drop any cash

Asked by MissingAversa6 months ago

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Answers

Even if you don't need B!Ike you probably will eventually so id just do the legendary banner.

B!Ike has good fodder too though, so it might not be too bad to go for 1 5* and call it quits, but then again the Legendary Banners are notorious for climbing to high Pity Rates...

I myself will do the first round of Blue and Green then I'm taking my orbs and going home!

The personal chance for L Hector out of green orbs is (8÷3=)2.6%. If Hector is the only green in his GHB banner, he has a personal appearance rate of 3%. So it is statistically more likely to get him there, but if you'd also take Myrrh, I'd advise to go for Legendary.

If you're only after Distant Counter, then you might as well wait for Hector's BHB banner.

Depends on whether you're ok with not getting DC fodder and whether you can save up 150-200 orbs by the time July 11 comes (last day for Matthew+Hector banner). If either of those are true, then pulling greens on this legendary banner is a slightly better deal. I calculated an expectation of 66 orbs per Myrrh/L.Hector assuming you pull only greens and your pity rate never goes up (which is not the case, but it means that the 66-orb expectation holds even if you get pitybroken). You have slightly better chances of pulling three of the 5* focus greens you want. The trouble is that if you throw all your orbs at it and get two of the focus greens you want, the probability is 1 in 4 that both of them will be Myrrh. (If you manage to pull three, the probability is 1 in 8 that all of them will be Myrrh.)

My calculations for the Hector+Matthew banner, assuming only one other focus unit, is an expectation of 78 orbs per Hector, again assuming you pull only greens and your pity rate never goes up. (Again, not actually how it works, but it does mean that 78 orbs is the same expectation even if pitybreakers show up.) This number is a bit low for me to believe, but I've checked the calculations and I can't find any mistakes. So 150-200 orbs has a very high chance of getting you at least one Hector.