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Summoning chances?

So what are the chances of pulling grima out of the current banner? I like the character and want to go for one copy.

Is It a good idea to snipe for him? I believe that 3 character banners are the ones with best chances, right? He doesnt share a color and is in the green pool, which is the least dilluted so I should expect to get him relatively soon?

Asked by surlain4 months 3 weeks ago
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Answers

Rates are split among all focus units, so Grima has a default 1% rate, but RNG is RNG. Still, your chances are better than most. And yes, sniping is probably a good idea since less summoning on other colors means more summoning on the color you want.

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1% that you will get Grima if you pretend that you can't discern shape or colour and pick an orb at random. "Throw a stick, hit a unit." 1 in 100 will be Grima. If you toss out all non-greens, much of that 100 goes and you'll have a much higher chance - but it isn't 3 in 100 (in fact, for greens it's higher.)

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"Default 1% rate" is a little misleading. If you're pulling on green orbs, the % of pulling Grima is much higher than 1%. You just run the risk of not getting green orbs on a summoning circle. A 1% rate implies that it would take 100 pulls for one copy of Grima, when in reality the average is closer to 20

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As I explain below, it is not misleading; the popular fallacy is the deception. It would only take 100 pulls for Grima if you pull all colours including colourless. The appearance rate of Grima within greens is 1 in 18-19.

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I admit that was worded quite poorly. What I meant is that the focus rate doesn't apply to each individual focus unit. Regardless of how the colors are split among the focuses, the focus rate is divided by the number of focus units on the banner. In this case, there are 3 focus units. 3% divided by 3 units results in a 1% rate for each individual focus unit.

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What are you on about? He's green, he does not split the focus rate with blue characters. If you choose a green orb, your chances of getting a blue Focus are 0% and your chances of getting a green Focus are 3%.

The only question is, how many green orbs will you get in your summoning Circle? I think chances are split evenly of orbs in any color and I could sit down in math it out, your chances of any one orb being green or 25%, 5 orbs means you take the chances of not happening * 5, multiply and invert to get your chances that at least one orb is green.

Then depending on how many green orbs you pull, each one has a 3% so the math gets more and more complicated depending on how many orbs you are willing to spend.

I know this is written poorly, I'm sorry. Probability and statistics is not easy to describe in a few hundred characters on a forum with a cell phone.

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No, this myth is common and needs to be put down and put down hard. Appearance rate is split between units of equal rarity. The initial responder is correct. Grima, Hardin, and Effie split 3% regardless of whether you pull blues. The appearance of orbs hiding Grima does not increase just because you don't pull blues - that is absurd but counterintuitive to some, let not them be faulted. Similarly, the appearance rate of any 4* green is equal to 58% divided by the number of 4* units of any colour. Once the appearance rates of all characters is calculated, we can consider divide Grima's appearance rate by the sum of the appearance rates of all greens to get some number close to 5.4% (my numbers might need updating due to the additional of new permanent units). This reason is why red focus units are so much harder to pull - a lot of red characters appear at lower rarities, but the appearance rates of focus units don't increase, so in the long run we will usually have to pull a lot more reds to find focus units.

The only reason why sniping helps get a focus unit is because you will pull more of that colour, which means you target that 5.4% (or lower for a non-green) more times than if you also pull other units.

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So you're telling me that there are more blue orbs on this Banner than other banners simply by virtue of the fact that there are more blue Focus units?

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Correct. 1 in 100 more compared to another non-colour sharing banner with three focus units, to be precise. That 1 orb would be a different colour.

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In short, it would take an average of 105 orbs to pull Grima if sniping on Green:

https://www.reddit.com/r/FireEmblemHeroes/comments/959g5c/orb_cost_analysis_heroes_with_fighter_skills/

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I calculated using mathematical probability instead of statistics on multiple simulations, but his/her method is valid. I calculated an expectation of 90-ish orbs, not accounting for pity rates (i.e. any pitybreaks would not change the expectation of 90 orbs)

78 (median) is probably the better number there - 50% of people will get him in 78 orbs.

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