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Recommendation on if I should pull
I really want a Bold Fighter unit for my Halloween Jakob to complete my armor team (Zelgius, Winter Robin, Amelia, and Jakob), but idk if spending my ~130 orbs on the legendary hero banner tmrw is worth for just Lissa and her Bold Fighter. Already have a cavalry team, and other units. Only other units that seem appealing are fallen Robin and the blue units outside Azura (Already have her). Do u guys think I should pull?
Answers
The fighter skills banner comes in a week. You can expect to get a bold fighter fodder for 50% less orbs, mathematically speaking.
Appearance rate of W.Lissa is 0.666....% on the 8% banner and appearance rate of Hardin on the fighter skills banner is 1% unless we get surprised and it's not just M.Grima and Effie there with him. Even then you'll get a better offer for the number of orbs expected to find a bold fighter.
My recommendation if you want the bold fighter badly enough, skip this banner. You'll be sitting on a pretty solid number of orbs for targeting Hardin even if variance goes unfavourably. If you want to gamble, pull for a single 5* blue on the 8%. You're looking at an expectation of 96-ish orbs, and you can probably fire just enough orbs at Hardin to get him by Aug 15. It will be quite risky, though, and I think it might be straight up a poor bet if you expect CYL at the end of August and want to pull on it.
Edit: 96-ish orbs for one of the two blues you want. My calculations assume pity rates never increase because I haven't figured out how to account for that in Excel, so if you get pitybroken, you can still expect a desired 5* for not much more than 96 counting from the very first orb you fired.
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