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The rates from a mathematical standpoint were released.

TLDR; your best bet is to go in green without wanting Alfonse or Sharena in specific.
Your worst bet is going into Blue for Catria. However, Kagero is only a bit better in comparison to Catria, so both of them have very poor rates.

Asked by pkslowpoke9 months 1 week ago
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Answers

Good statistic! I line if I don't have to do the maths myself!

Btw, how can there be a max amount? Nothing is ever sure in the world of RNGesus.

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Yeah, I don't know either. Even if you only take single pulls, the max amount of orbs before the no 5* safety net kicks in is only 600.

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But even then, if you have the 5* safety AND only colourless orbs (for example) there is no GUARANTEE that you pull Kagero. It is just very likely.

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The "max" is the maximum number of orbs spent to get the character in the 1,000,000 simulations that this data is drawn from. It does not represent the maximum it might take to get one, just the maximum seen in a million tries.

(This was originally posted on reddit and person who posted it explained this)

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Thanks for the explanation!

So the number has, as a matter of facts, no real mathematical value, right? As those were a million random simulations and if the same calculation is repeated it is likely that value is different.

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Of course green would be the best on the banner I'd want to avoid greens on. I'm just not excited for the askr originals as I am characters I've used from the main series. I really would only want Catria tbh. But I wouldn't be upset getting Kagero either, helps that pulling on colorless always has the chance of getting Lachesis to show up, for merging. Well at least maybe pulling blue and colorless could still net me some possible Tailtiu and Lachesis.

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