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PSA: Consider Using Your Free Pick on Red

Red is statistically the worst colour for trying to get 5* units because there are so many 3*/4* reds that a greater proportion of red orbs will give you these units rather than 5*s.

If you want Celica and want to spend fewer orbs getting more 5*s, using your free pick on her is a very good idea according to mathematical probability.

Asked by Seeker4 months 1 week ago

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On another note, is there a better way we can do it than have a question for each person trying to figure out how to use their free pick? I can actually see some merit to having a separate question for each person, but it's going to flood our Q&A section.

The goddess, RNG, doesn't care about mathematical probability. She'll screw you over on a whim if she feels like it. ಠ_ಠ

Can't screw you over on a free pick...except IVs I guess?

Can't screw you over on IV's if you don't get IV's

I don't think that's how it works. You might argue that more red orbs show up because there's more red units, but if there is no correlation between amount of red units and amount of red orbs then Celica is just as likely as showing up as the other 3.

Edit: Actually there is a slightly lower chance of Celica showing up if there are more red 5* star units than the other colors. The amount of red 3 and 4 star units shouldn't make a difference.

All units of the same rarity share the appearance rate. That means that since reds are significantly more numerous than any other colour in 3* and 4* pools, more of that 94% is red. (I don't remember if the same is true of the general 5* pool, but it only accounts for 3% of stones so it wouldn't make much difference anyways.) As such, a lot more red orbs appear, which means if you pull all reds you will generally go through more before you find B.Celica.