Panic Ploy 2 vs. 3 doesn't change much if it's going onto Effie.
tl;dr NO offensive horse breaks 41 Hp, you're fine no matter what. Eldigan however reaches 50, so you'll want a refine for him. But even then, Panic Ploy 3 would have no difference on any matchup except refined Eldigan vs. -HP refined Effie, and is it worth 20K feathers to fix that one MU that Effie probably wins anyways?
Your main objective with Panic Ploy is to be able to conssitently Panic all offensive horses. A premier objective is to Panic all cavaliers, period.
The highest - HP offensive cav is Siegbert at 41, so Panic Ploy 2 will get him if you have >=44 HP.
The highest HP cav, period is Refined Stahl at 45+5 = 50 HP, but at that point it's fucking Stahl, who even cares if he has offensive buffs? Same with Clive, not so much with Eldigan who can be really troublesome.
You should be fine for the most part with Effie. Any HP will Ploy all the rangers and all the offensive non-Eldigan melees even with -Spd at level 2. You'll need +HP to Ploy Eldigan at all, though.
Of course, if you have a refine on her, nobody cares anymore and the only thing that goes unployed that matters in the slightest is +HP Eldy vs. Neutral or Neutral vs. -HP. That's the one difference Panic Ploy 3 would ever make.
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