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Is it possible that the appearance rates are lies?

I got up to a 6.25 rate on the Halloween banner. First of all, there's only a 0.0036 chance of that happening. That chance is so low that it's statistically insignificant. Second, more than 50% of my summons were 3 stars. I don't have an exact ratio, because I sent a lot of them home, but I know for a fact that it was more than 50%. I suspect that IS noticed I haven't spent a penny on this game, and was trying to enrage me enough to either quit (and stop wasting their sever time), or spend money.

Asked by DoctorFever1 year 1 month ago
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Imo, its around 0.049%, but i may be mistaken, i had stat long ago in uni, one semester and i never believed i will need it for something :P

It goes like this:
97/100 chance of not getting 5* in first 5 orbs
(9700/10000)^5 chance of not getting 5* in first full pull.
(9675/10000)^5 for chances of not getting 5* in second full pull (or after 10 snipings)
and so go on till (9400/10000)^5, which is 13 full pulls or 65 heroes, and after that chances jumps to 6.25%

then you do:

(9700/10000)^5 * (9625/10000)^5 * ... * (9400/10000)^5 = ~0.049%

Tho, as i have said, long time no stat, i may have screwed something up.

but it basically should go like this:

if you throw 6-side dice into the air, chances of it landing on non-6 dots side is 5/6 (excluding landing on the edge). Throwing it 2 times in the air and for it to land twice on non-6 dots side is 5/6*6/6, so 30/36 out of set of two throws in the air will land on non 6-dots side (for both throws).

With pulls on heroes it should be the same, just you have 3% for 5* hero, so 97% (or 97 out of 100, or 97/100) chance for not getting one and with each next 5 pulls chance of not getting one drops by 0.25%
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EDIT EDIT EDIT: ^ Bad example, should be "1-(1/6*1/6)= 35/36". And now i doubt my whole math, but im too tired to do it). Maybe chance for not getting 5* in first full pull should be "1-((3/100)^5)="

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Are you doing full pulls, or sniping for a particular color(s)?

RNG is RNG, sometimes I spend $40 and get between 5-10 5*s, other times I spend >$300 and get 3 (like today). At the end of the day, summoning in this game IS gambling.

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its all luck dude, I once got my rate to 7% over time on the bridal banner with it ending on another bridal lyn, I was trying to get a bride Cordelia because I had already gotten a bride lyn.

On the summer banner (Nohrian) I had gotten my rate to almost 6% before I got a summer corrin.

But another time on 3% rate on the CYL banner or Brave banner, I ended up getting a lilina, raven and Brave Ike on the same pull along with the other 2 units being 4 star.

Another time on the banner with Ayra it was at 3.25% I ended up getting Ayra twice and a B! Roy.

Its all RNG dude maybe your luck will be better on the next banner you know that's all you can hope for.

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"I once got my rate to 7% over time on the bridal banner with it ending on another bridal lyn." its so great to know I'm not alone with that having been an experience.

I still have the screenshot that broke my heart forever. Its what keeps me from summoning like a wild person, knowing the supposed appearance rate percentage is not a great measurement of what your experience will be.

Never got my Corde...
Never forget...

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I think they sometimes mess with the odds to make certain characters more likely to appear, and certain days more likely to yield 5 stars. My mom and I have been playing since the first week the game came out. After around 2 months of playing the game we started to notice a very odd correlation. Around 1/3-1/2 of our 5 stars have been obtained on the same day, most of the time within hours of each other. Neither of us save orbs, we get 5 orbs we use 5 orbs. To my knowledge, this doesn't occur when the new story maps or large quantities of orbs are given out. This normally occurs when we just happen to get to 5 orbs on the same day. We've also both noticed that certain characters seem to have a higher chance of getting pulled than others in their same color group. In the time that I've been playing, I've received 3 4 star roys from normal summons. That doesn't seem bad until you look at how many of certain other characters of the same color and rarity I've received. I've received so many adult tikis and selenas that I've completely lost count. Id guess around 15-20 adult tikis and around 20 Selenas that's just in the 4 star rarity btw. If each character within a certain rarity and color really had an equal chance of getting pulled, you wouldn't see such a massive disparity between the amounts. I've been playing Nintendo games all of my life and have accepted that the odds in their games just don't add up. i just feels its kinda scummy of them to do so in a game where you can pay for the chance to summon. If games like fire emblem and Pokémon cheat with their odds, who really cares. But when a gambling game does it, they really shouldn't be allowed to get away with it. Good luck proving it though XD.

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