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I was planning on summoning for Ophelia 😐

She shares color with silas the hell man he was one of the units I didn't like in fates the thought of summoning for her and getting him irritates me.

Flora is nice,but I never cared for her and her skills aren't going to make me summon for her.

I always liked nina in fates,I might try for her or just skip entirely silas ruined it for me.

Who you going for?

Asked by antsims933 months 2 weeks ago
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Answers

So, let nobody feel attacked; I've declared war against the idea that colour-sharing reduces 3% to 1.5% or 8% to 2.67% or anything like this.

The appearance rate of any individual focus unit on this upcoming banner is approximately 1 in 133 stones of all colours. Blue stones are expected to constitute about 27.5% of all stones on this banner, which means Ophelia and Silas will each be 1 of about 37 blue stones. Mathematically, if you pull 37 blue stones, you expect to see 1 Ophelia and 1 Silas. If blue was not a shared colour (say we got an axe instead of Silas), you could expect to see 1 less blue stone every 133, which means only 36/133 (instead of 37/133) stones would be blue (numbers rounded to the nearest whole), and math would expect to see Silas once for every 36 blue stones you reveal. 1 in 36 vs 1 in 37. The only thing I haven't accounted for is pity rates, but their effect is tiny. Akariss says it's so small it probably makes a difference every 600-1000 orbs (if I'm quoting him correctly), by which time you have pulled the other focus unit multiple times.

https://fireemblem.gamepress.gg/q-a/against-colour-sharing-myth

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Nonetheless, I generally advise against pulling on four-unit banners unless there's a colour-share you like (ex: PA Azura + PA Inigo if you just want any singer/dancer, or S.Linde + S.Takumi, or possibly H.Jakob + H.Sakura if you like kitty paddle or want an extra anti-mage) because appearance rates of individual characters is lower, which means you will tend to have to pull more stones to find your target focus.

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But if the situation was, for example, that Ophelia ended up being a Green tome user instead, the individual rates for each focus unit wouldn't change since there'd still be 4 focus units, but you wouldn't be able to get spooked by another focus unit if there's no color sharing. Am I understanding that correctly?

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Correct. Yet, (and take this with a grain of salt because I haven't done my own calculations) I'm not convinced pity rates have much effect on how many orbs you need to find a focus unit. I do my calculations ignoring pity rates, and I end up with numbers that look very much like what GamePress comes up with running their summon simulators 10 000 times, which do include pity rates.

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by Averdi 3 months 2 weeks ago

Definitely going for Flora & Ophelia... in 3~6 months time when they show up on a Legendary Banner.

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Typically, Im the guy that encourages day 1 pulls, but sharing color on a 4 unit banner...RIP. Alternatively (and I hate when people say this too but) you should wait for the Legendary Banner (tenatively in Feb 2019) when the pity breaks will be less heartbreaking.

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Lowkey how I feel about Ophelia. On the one hand I really want her; on the other, I don't want to end up getting Silas who'll most likely be available as a 4 star later.

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I don't mind the shared colors for this banner, since I like both characters. Granted, one of them has a huge neon "Will Demote" sign above him, but that won't change my stance towards the color that much.

Who knows, maybe Silas can become a potential 5*+10 for me in the future...

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I'm the reverse: I actually like Silas more than any other units here just because I enjoyed using him the most in Fates. That's not to say that I hate the other units. This banner has my two favorite Fates children in Ophelia and Nina, and Flora is a character that I also really like to the point where I married her off to My Unit / Corrin in my Conquest playthrough--and also to get all of the child units.

As much as I like everyone, I'm not going to do anymore than the free pull and hope that Silas gets demoted (which he seems the most likely to be) so that I can turn him into an eventual merge project. (Everyone else will pity-break me at one point in the future, if my recent summons are any indication--which I wouldn't mind.)

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I must have Ophelia! Nina and Flora (for twin team with Felicia) would be nice but the mage must be mine. I love how the worked her Bibliophile skill into the game, rather than carrying 3+ tomes/scrolls boosting her critical, the more tomes around her the quicker her special fires.

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