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I feel a touch unlucky today

180 orbs (and $26) with only a -atk/+def B Hector and a -def/+res Amelia.
I'm not going to complain, as I will use them both. I've also been wanting Amelia for a year now, so seeing her break my 4.5 rate wasn't bitter.
Saving the free summon until the end of the banner, as I really want the other 3 heroes, too, especially Veronica.
How is your luck today?

Asked by Oedipus2274 months 1 week ago
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Answers

Amelia is fantastic! I've used my +Def-HP since I started playing the game. I'm still gonna use her even though Ephraim is a direct replacement for her. So far with my 80 orbs I got BHector -Def+HP and BCelica -Res+Hp. So it's went well so far for me.

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Oh yes, I'm super excited for her. SS is my favorite FE game, and I was pissed when I didn't get her a year ago. She was basically the best pity breaker I could have asked for.

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Pulled a +DEF -SPD Maribelle; not necessarily bad, but on this particular banner it feels exceptionally bad. Also got a Sothe that's -HP +DEF, but it's my first one so whatever.

That's the draws so far, but the rate is 3.75% after 75 Orbs. Going to build up some more Orbs in the next few days, and spend time investing in my newest units: Maribelle, Sumia, and Karla.

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by Rein 4 months 1 week ago

Just remember that getting a focus unit averages around 150 orbs, so you were very much a bit lucky with that Amelia!

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Is that how the averages play out? I always thought it was about 50 orbs per 5*, but I suppose I was wrong. Either way, I stoked about the two units I got, even with the IVs

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50 orbs per 5* is sniping greens on a legendary 8% banner. It's an exceptionally good price. (Of course, the thing about legendaries is that there are three possible 5*s.)

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You got a Unit you been waiting for a long time with a super boon. Cheer up man, and congrats.

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by Seeker 4 months 1 week ago

I'd be fairly happy with the Hector if I were you. He'll blast the living daylights out of everything with that ignis, and the superboon in def is really good. I'm not really that much a fan of his res (unlike new Ephraim's) so def is probably the only boon I would want.

My numbers aren't bang on, but assuming you pull all four colours (thereby reducing the number of orbs per pull), the mathematical expectation is to obtain a focus 5* of a given colour within the following numbers of orbs spent ON THAT COLOUR:
R 160
B 142
G 97
C 132

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I'm curious about his math too. It must get complicated because of the pity rate going up.

I assume it takes more orbs to pull a focus unit if there are more 5*s in that color pool because it reduces your chance of pulling a focus unit as an off-focus unit if that makes sense.

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All focus units of the same rarity share the appearance rate for that rarity. I can therefore determine:
- the appearance rate of all units
- from that, the probability of any round containing 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 stones of desired focus colours
- from that probability, the expected average number of orbs per summon (which is always between 4 and 5)
- the probability that any stone of a given colour conceals the desired 5*. This percentage is equal to the appearance rate of the focus 5* divided by the sum of the appearance rates of all units of that colour.
- from this probability, the expected number of pulls within which a desired focus unit will appear

By multiplying the average number of orbs per summon and the expected number of pulls within which a desired focus unit will appear, I get the numbers I presented above.

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>All focus units of the same rarity share the appearance rate for that rarity
What?

I still don't get it. Maybe you can show your work sometime if you're bored.

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If you go to "more info" or "details" (I forget which) on any summoning banner and scroll all the way to the bottom, that's a statement you will find.

For example, on a banner with three focus units of which B.Hector is one, 1 in 3 stones concealing focus units will hide B.Hector. If the focus 5* rate on that banner is 3%, then 3 in 100 stones hide focus 5*s, so 1 in 100 stones hides Hector. Similarly, assume that there are 58 possible 4* units when we count all colours. (There are actually around 100, but to make the numbers easy to process, let's assume 58.) On average, every 4* unit will hide behind 1 of every 58 stones hiding 4* units. Since the appearance rate of 4* units is 58%, or 58 in 100, each 4* character would hide behind 1 in 100 stones on average. Notice that colour is never mentioned.

Put another way, forget colours for a second and pretend there are four kinds of stones: 3* stones, 4* stones, 5* off-focus stones, and 5* focus stones. They all look identical until you reveal the characters they hide. Suppose we have a legendary 8% banner and you want exactly one of the focus units, no others. You will never get a 5* off-focus stone. Every time you reveal a focus stone, your chance of finding your desired unit is 1 in 12.

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Spent about 300 orbs:

2 same bad IV Ephraims - foddered one to Gwen for Armor march
1 good IV Veronica (+atk -res)

I'd say that's pretty decent luck.

Edit: I forgot to mention that I got 2 Gwendolyns to fill out my +10, and the last Gwen happened to be 4* perfect IVs (+spd -hp), so I'd say I had godlike luck this banner.

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The first half I spent 90+ orbs and got 2 focus units and 2 pitybreakers,which isn't bad,but my second half i spent 110 orbs and got Ephraim and a sanaki(merged),now I have 40 orbs left that I'm saving.

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