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How to calculate orb costs?

I remember I found a very detailed post here or on reddit not too long ago (maybe about 3 weeks?) but for the love of god i simply cannot find it, and i've searched for about an hour.

Has anybody by chance saved the link?

As for context - I want to fill my barracks with blue units, especially Silas to inherit Aether+SB from B.Ike without spending feathers, Sumia doesn't appeal to me (but B.Ninian and Ephraim do) and I wonder whether the second voting gauntlet banner is a better place to snipe blue... I want Ophelia, have little use of Olwen, already got a perfect Ishtar and I'm undecided about Linde... she's cool, but she needs her weapon refine, and I'm not sure I wanna spend dew on her :P

PS: Damn I wish we had Hinoka (for hone fliers) or an infantry lance instead of Sumia... I need both of those

Asked by Kathanay2 months ago

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Answers

*Sigh*
The most reasonable decision might be to wait for L.Lucina or L.Tiki's rerun and get my Silas then... the wait is going to be unbearable :<

Fam I sniped Kliff

If I were to pull on that fated banner, I would give my all to deserve the help of the chosen hero of legend, with fate's dark brand on his blood-hungry swordhand, Owain Dark himself!

...but i'm not sure i'm ready to shell out 130 orbs for him :<

No clue of the next best blue unit that’ll be out though. If you just want to throw your orbs at something the good blue banner isn’t too bad. Odd attack wave, chill res, linde, and someone else

Haha, I really want Owain, too. But I can't bring myself to summon for a unit who I could theoretically get from any banner so long as there are seasonals I want and still haven't pulled.

You might be thinking of this?
https://fireemblem.gamepress.gg/q-a/hey-seeker-i-have-some-summoning-math-questions

There's also this
https://fireemblem.gamepress.gg/q-a/what-chance-pull-equation-5-star-current-banner
and this
https://fireemblem.gamepress.gg/q-a/my-thought-process-deciding-vg-banner-vs-legendary-banner

Or let me know what your interests are on the VG banner and I can give you some tips

Hmm, I think neither of the three posts are exactly the one i was looking for, but your second link (I remember reading this post, but befor you responded) especially is a good enough for me.

The first link goes a lot more in-depth, I read the first big comment and flew over the rest - it's too much for me right now, i'll gladly read it later though.

As for my interest in the VG - I wrote them right into the main post.
" I want Ophelia, have little use of Olwen, already got a perfect Ishtar and I'm undecided about Linde... she's cool, but she needs her weapon refine, and I'm not sure I wanna spend dew on her :P "

Ah sorry I missed that part.

So, by the same logic that I used in the third link:
On the legendary banner you're looking at 1.33% which is not bad
On the VG banner you're looking at 0.75% + off-focus (not sure how many of those interest you but I'll assume around 2/3) which is somewhere around 0.5%, which brings you to 1.25%ish, plus maybe you want Linde so when it's this close you could consider "maybe Linde" a tiebreaker in favour of VG banner. However, the off-focus rate is available to you on all non-legendary banners, so you may as well try for Ophelia on a 3% banner with three focus units where her plus off-focus would put you over 1.33%.