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Focus *5 vs. Off-Focus 4* summoning?

People keep saying Libra is the most likely to end up in the 4* pool. And while it seems very likely, my concern is in regards as to if it's necessarily better than just going for the focus now.

Think of it. While the 4* is like 50%, there's no telling it'll be him or the other many others of his colour. I also want to get him Wrath at some point, and Nephenee's in a banner right now...

Asked by Nogitsune5 months 1 week ago
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i think obtaining wrath is more important than obtaining libra rn, assuming he is gonna be the one demoted

with how often we dont get a 5 star, i think itd be safe to pass up pulling for him and try to get some nephs

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Then again, mine is -Def (superbane, too). I tend to believe that Wrath works a lot better when you're either pretty bulky or don't expect to get (Braves, since we don't have Desperation with Wrath).

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So, I tried doing some calculations to see whether it is better to wait to summon him or not. Here is what I came up with (and please, someone correct me if anything is off or if I failed taking something important into account):

In the 4 Star pool, there are currently 18 Green units (19 if we assume that he is going to be demoted), and the standard 4-Star rate is 56%. This means that for every Green orb you pick, you have a

(1 / 19) * 0.56 = ~ 0.0295 (or 2.95% chance, rounded up)

of pulling a 4-Star Libra--assuming demotion. Keep in mind that I have neglected pulling 5-Star Libra, in which case the probability of pulling any Libra from Green orbs should be higher than what I have calculated.

Now, I know that the rate for pulling a 5-Star focus Libra is slightly lower than 3% because of how probability works out, but I don't think it is too much different. If you go all out for him now or later, the odds are going to be roughly the same, I think.

Now, the problem lies in getting Green orbs to show up in the first place...

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Thank you.

How would this fall in the context if I were to try for a Nephenee, right now? The guy above said I should probably go for her now. It kind of makes sense in that we don't know when she'll be a focus again.

Other:

- Only 18-19? For some reason, I thought they were over 50...lol.
- So if I get 300+ orbs within a month, it's not a bad idea to just snipe on Greens?

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Currently, 19 Blue units exist in the 5-Star pool. If you try to summon an off-focus Nephenee on any of the current banners, and not her focus banner (before Sumia is added into the permanent pool), you have a

(1 / 19) * 0.03 = ~0.00158 (or 0.158% chance)

of pulling her from a Blue orb, which will only decrease over time as more units are added into the game. (Again, I may be missing some important information that did not get factored into calculations, so please correct me if there is an error.)

Right now, Nephenee is available as a focus unit, so her chances will be closer to the displayed 3% chance. You should definitely try to go for her now if you want her. Otherwise, lol and good luck if you hold off on her.

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I'm not hoping to get her off-focus... which is why this might be a good chance.

As to my other question, I take sniping 300-500 orbs for a potential *4 Libra is a good chance to net a couple of him?

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Yes, go for Nephenee now. Her chances are pretty good because she is a focus unit; and even if she does become a focus again, her rates are going to be slightly less than they are now because more units will be added in the summoning pool in the future.

And if you only snipe Greens after he gets demoted, you have a decent chance of pulling a few 4-Star copies of Libra because the 4-Star Green pool is small compared to the other colors.

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Actually the calculation does not work this way I am afraid. There is no seperate pool for each colour, you have to add all together (3* for focus, 56% for 4* etc)then seperate each percentage by colour appearance rate when you snipe for one colour. I wrote a short essay explaining some of these before, or you can read the articles in gamepedia. Also you can go to each banner, go into 'details' and find the description about appearance rate to confirm.

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Forgot to add on that despite that, the percentage should not be that far off from your calculation, so it matters a little. As for Libra or Neph, just go for neph because 5* is way harder to obtain, but note that another neph banner is coming soon as well, for one day tho. If you think you can save up enough orbs for that day, maybe you should.

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Okay, I've read your article; to make sure that I am understanding this correctly, let me do a sample calculation:

According to the Gamepedia site, there are 177 summonable units across all colors in the permanent pool. Since 45 of them are Blue, that means you have a

45 / 177 = ~ 25.4% chance

of finding a Blue orb in your summoning circle. Since the current New Power banner has 3 focus units, one of each color, you have a 1% for each focus. That means that if you aim specifically for Blues in hopes of getting Nephenee, you have a

1% / 25.4% = ~3.93% chance

of pulling her from a Blue orb? Is this correct?

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Yes that is correct, but remember that for the total blue orb appearance rate, it is not just about the number of blue units over others, because there are 4 different pool with different units/distribution rate and different summon rate ( 5* focus, 5*, 4*, 3*). You have to then aggregate all of them together which is a heck lot of work. I can't be bothered to find that out so I cant help with the calculation, sorry.

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Yeah, that sounds like such a pain to solve for exactly. I think an approximation like this is going to be good most of the time, just to get a general idea of the rates.

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Although the chances of a certain 4* is very low, waiting in the long run is best, since you're going to be rolling on future banners anyway. You're going to encounter him at some point. Trust me, I've experienced fodder droughts for a looooooooong time. I'd rather save orbs, and just be patient, than spend extra orbs for Libra only to see him appear one day in the future as a 4* with perhaps even better IVs than the 5* one I got. Merging is possible, but I don't think a +1 merge is worth it, especially when you can prevent from happening by just not summoning for Libra.

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Well, I'm definitely making him +10 if I get the chance. Are you saying it's not worth it from an objective standpoint, or is it within the context that I'm likely not going to pull some extra *5s in this focus?

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