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Do all orb 'colors' appear equally?
...because I swear, green (especially when green is what I am going for) seems to come up the least frequently. Probably followed by colorless.
Am I jaded, or do you think the formula IS used isn't quite level among all four colors?
Answers
All orb colors appear equally, but not all areas of each color are equal in value.
For example, Reds have Swords, Red Tomes, Red Dragons, and eventually Red Bows
Meanwhile, Grays have Gray Bows, Staves, Daggers, and Gray Dragons
Depending on what you want or don't want, the value of each area of each color fluctuate.
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For numbers which are easier to read, let's assume 100% 4* rate. (Would be kind of a dream fodder banner, but unrealistic.) If the 4* pool is 30 reds, 30 blues, 20 green, and 20 colourless, the probabilities are 30%, 30%, 20%, and 20%.
So first, we estimate for probability of any orb hiding a unit of a certain rarity, and then we estimate, for that rarity, what the probabilities are of each colour. Add the probabilities of the same colour at different rarities, and you get the total probability that any given orb will be of a certain colour.
We now leave the individual to figure out the exact values.
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Based on the pools, reds are skewed to appear more because they have many more units. Blues and colorless (in that order) are next most. Greens are the rarest, and arguably have the strongest pool in terms of what your odds are for pulling them; I’ve had full red circles and blue circles before, had 4 colorless many times, but I’ve never had more than 3 green at a single time.
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