Benchmarks for reaching T20/21 using aether fountain lv3

All values assume you break both opponent aether structures every raid.

Negative lift values are the sum of lift lost on defense plus lift you miss gaining from losing units on offense
Positive lift values are the minimum gain per raid on offense in order to promote.

-400 = perfect offense, 5 complete failures on defense
-480 = perfect offense, 6 complete failures on defense
-560 = perfect offense, 7 complete failures on defense
8 scored defenses I consider very unlikely at this age of the mode.

For every unit lost on offense, you would need to take down one opponent on defense.

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Starting in T19 will probably allow 15 raids regardless of how much lift you gain per raid.
-400: +107
-440: +110
-480: +112
-560: +118
-600: +120
-750: +130 (for a very bad season on defense plus

Starting in T20 will probably allow 14 raids regardless of how much lift you gain per raid.
-360: +140
-400: +143
-480: +149
-500: +150
-560: +155
-640: +160

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With one unmerged mythic:
+110: one blessed unit
+120: two blessed units
etc.

With two unmerged mythics:
+120: one blessed unit
+140: two blessed units
+160: three blessed units

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Season starting Jan 7 (has an extra day; will be light/dark season):

T19 should be able to raid 17 times at least, more likely 18.

On 17 raids:
-480: less than +100
-500: +100
-560: +103
-670: +110
In other words, most players will probably promote during the 8-day season.

On 18 raids (which is more likely than 17 raids, especially if you don't gain +120 per battle)
-600: +100
-780: +110

T20 will be able to raid 17 times.
-400: +118
-440: +120
-480: +123
-560: +128
-640: +130
-780: +140