Attempt at orb budget

I have a feeling I'll need to adjust because the next hero fest is happening anytime now, but I've managed to make some plans and I thought people who are interested in orb-saving might find useful to see my work.

I'm sitting on about 530 orbs, and I'll be up to 550ish by the end of the month. Over the next six months (i.e. by the end of February) I expect 300 a month plus a bit of extra for the second anniversary, so let's say 1850 because it adds to a round number of 2400.

I'm going to try to keep 200 orbs for padding. So RNG can toy with me, but I'll have enough summons to raise a regular banner pity rate by at least 2.5%, which I expect to be enough to beat the wave in most cases. I then replenish the reserve whenever RNG goes in my favour and I get what I want in fewer orbs than expected. So I have 2200 orbs to work with.

Pulling B.Hector the next time he appears on a 3%/3% banner with three focus units: 130 orbs
Pulling B.Veronica the next time she appears on a similar banner: 120 orbs
Pulling B.Ephraiam in like manner: 90 orbs
Pulling NY Azura on rerun of NY banner: 140 orbs
Total from these 4: 480 orbs. 2200 - 480 = 1720.

Passes:
PA, because I can do without extra dancers
Winter's Envoy, because I don't need W.Chrom and four focus units give me a bad price to pull for Lissa or Robin

Reserving 1000 orbs for 2nd anniversary. Maybe I'll give up 100-300 if legendary banners in the meantime are especially good, but 1000 is the plan. 720 orbs left.

Probably spend 170 orbs on Halloween re-run to see if I can get a better H.Jakob (currently +HP -res). If I can get +atk I'll be really happy, or any -spd, or failing that, any -HP. I'm expecting H.Sakura to show up in 170 as well.

That leaves me 550 orbs for everything else in the meantime, and it's probably all going to legendary banners whenever I find good opportunities to try to get Lucina and Marth.

So I'm passing on Micaiah even though I want her. I'll know, probably not more than six months later, whether I like the outcome of my decision.