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For any who got disappointed by Lukas being on fortress skills banner

Unless you're trying to merge Kliff +10, I would say Lukas sharing the colour is a good thing. The average number of orbs to pull one copy of Kliff will still be somewhere around 100-120. Put another way, if you go in with 350 orbs, the math would expect you to get 3 copies of Kliff regardless of who the other focus units are. Lukas being there just means you get three free slaying lances to go with the Kliffs. Pulling a 5* Lukas is not a Kliff you didn't get any more than pulling a 3* or 4* Lukas unless your 5* rate is up to something like 4.5% (I'm not sure about this last part don't take that as a calculated number.)

https://fireemblem.gamepress.gg/q-a/against-colour-sharing-myth

Don't believe me? Look at the simulations.
https://fireemblem.gamepress.gg/know-odds-general-probability-analysis-fire-emblem-heroes

Asked by Seeker1 week 2 days ago

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You going for kilff today?

Great way to look at this btw

No; first I will see what happens with the second seasonal banner and legendary banners

Lukas is one of the few units who has a Fortress skill, of course he was going to be on the banner. The only other option is Seth?

Some were disappointed it wasn't Seth because then Lukas won't pitybreak you, which is true but the difference it makes for how difficult it is to get Kliff is insignificant until you're over 400-600 orbs in.

It shouldve been Seth and I already sent feedback that this was a bad idea. It shouldve been Seth in every way imaginable. Red was not gonna be rolled and Lukas deters people from going for Kliff. Its bad business

Mine should be +7 instead of +5 because of this dumb bitch stop spreading your lies

Also I merged the Lukas because he can meme with my +def Silas I got

You're fooling with me, yes? I recall you knowing the math

Pityrate is very real thats not negligible. I wish it wasn't so I could be happy with my Lukas. What we need is a buff to Lukas damage art to match the current meta of top tier units like Silas.

On reds, where orb costs are higher than general (numbers from GamePress' "Know Your Odds". The banner used for the simulation was 3% with three focus unit, of which two were red)
10%ile: unshared: 980; shared: 1011
30%ile: unshared: 1247; shared: 1295
50%ile: unshared: 1452; shared: 1512
70%ile: unshared: 1678; shared: 1784
90%ile: unshared: 2029; shared: 2160

The difference isn't even 100 orbs until 70%ile for 11 copies. At the same percentile, it was 162 orbs a copy, so those 100 orbs weren't enough on average to pull one copy.

Do you really mean to say that in under 400 orbs you think you could have pulled two extra copies of Kliff if Lukas didn't pitybreak you?

I get the logic and the math. But how many times have you actually run the simulation?
Some times you get 8 of one and 1 of the other.... What happens if you're looking for the one?
Odds are always a gamble and pulling a certain coloured orb with a matching focus is always going to do more harm than good to your merges.

The data calculates on 11 copies, you're luck can even out by then. Especially over a 1000 simulations. We only get one shot though.

90%ile is sometimes used as a "worst case scenario" because it will only happen 1 in 10 tries.

If you're pulling for a single copy the difference is even narrower. You can check the differences on the article

I'd rather be pity broken by the general population of blues than by Lucas personally... But well, having 11 of them to go with my 11 Kliffs sounds like a problem I don't really have to deal to with.

The GamePress article says the data is from 10 000 simulations

No dude its a joke

I know the odds but seeing Lukas will still make you livid because youre going for Kliff. And yes I was pitybroken. Id rather just get more fodder and wait because odds of getting Kliff are better without pitybreak. I at least like Lukas so I merged him and will probably give him some kinda whatever build

Haha you got me

When you said pity rates aren't negligible I thought you were serious

That's how luck works.

What's more disappointing is that I didn't get a single blue on my free summon. At least I got a free Innes, even though he was -Atk. Just merged him into my +Spd one.

Can we just be disappointed by a Fortress skills banner in general? Those two likely lads are going to be demoted for sure.
It's not like we're talking about a specific skill here.
Lucas gets +5 Def and loses -3 atk
Innes gets +Res and loses -3 Atk.
Somehow pretty boy with a tome gets both the bonuses with a +1 and also drops a point in the attack loss...

??? They're all pretty. But more importantly Innes is still a great catch because of how fun he is. So is Kliff. I actually do like the banner even though Lukas is iffy

There's this

kind

chasm
between the fortress skills.
Good luck though!