I found some errors in my calculations and I haven't updated, but this should give some idea.
https://fireemblem.gamepress.gg/q-a/how-ar-uses-aether-consumption-manage-tiers-and-which-tier-youre-likely-sit
It's very hard to break into T20 this season. If they're sitting at 9000 now I think they have a chance. They probably have 5 raids left and they're 400 lift away.
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